March 6, 2026
Over the past few weeks, many clients have asked a common question: “How will the current geopolitical tension affect the markets?”
While no one can predict the path of events with certainty, based on what we’re seeing now, the U.S. economy remains generally resilient, even as events in the Middle East create short‑term uncertainty.
A few key themes stand out from our recent discussions and research:
- Markets have historically stabilized after geopolitical shocks, and disruptions are often temporary.
Looking back to 1940, the S&P 500 has historically regained stability within several months following geopolitical disruptions. Markets may move up and down in the short run, but they often stabilize as conditions improve. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but the historical context is helpful.
- Energy prices.
Crude oil prices have risen this year. Higher energy costs can be challenging for consumers, but they also contribute to higher profits for U.S. energy companies.
- Market movements reflect fast‑changing geopolitical news.
Developments around the conflict and concerns about the Strait of Hormuz—an essential route for global oil shipments—are contributing to short-term market movements.
- Inflation is expected to run higher this year.
With supply chains and energy markets under pressure, we expect inflation to be higher this year. Prolonged geopolitical strain could keep markets swinging up and down. As always, these views may change as new information becomes available.
Looking Ahead
Our positioning reflects this balanced backdrop. We continue to focus on discipline—avoiding emotional reactions to rapid headlines while staying ready to adjust if the situation meaningfully changes.
Periods like this reinforce the importance of diversification. Your goals, time horizon, and financial plan remain the foundation of our approach.
If you’d like to discuss your portfolio or the current environment in more detail, we’re here to help.
Enjoy the weekend,
Kevin